Migaruke LV.20 Insomniac
Oct 16, 2019, 12:57 AM 1,113 read

Did some quick maths on pull rates based on 1 months savings of gems. DC really is quite generous!


Disclaimer: Only had time to analyze 4 games. Assumes you're past that beginner "oh so many gems!" stage and are in homeostasis. TLDR: Chance of getting a specific desired unit using 1 month of saved premium currency: Destiny Child: 78% (only doing dailies) (low effort) Bang Dream: 8.6% (must play all events) (high effort) FGO: 9.1% (all events) (medium-high effort) Epic 7: 32% (all events) (but 100% at 2.5 months due to mercy pull mechanic) (medium-high effort) Long post: Anyways I started thinking about this after seeing a boatload of bad pulls, and people saying that the rates are bad or DC isin't giving out enough and what not. Since I really love DC, I decided I wanted to show you how this game stands up against others. I did some Google searching to figure out what your chances are for chasing a unit while they are rate up/featured. What I want to show here is that DC is quite generous. The rates are higher than any game I can think of. While I only did 4 games, I doubt y'all can find a game with rates as high as DC in this sense. Epic 7 is the only game that may top DC in it's mercy pull aspect. My analysis is below. So assuming you just do your dailies and nothing else you get 40,740 gems per month ((950 x 30) + (3060 x 4)). This assumes you get Silver III from just dailies. That's 150.88888 pulls per month. That's means for chasing a unit at 1%, you got a 78% chance of getting the unit you want from just 1 month of saving up gems. This completely excludes event gems or special events. Moa Moa Paradice is super good for gem accrual, probably around about another 8000-10000 more crystals. I can't think of any other game that is this friendly to you. Bang Dream gets you around 4,500 gems a week if you participate in everything (events and whatnot). It's 2500 for a 10 pull, so you get 18 pulls per month. Chasing a character is typically around 0.5% since there are usually 2 characters in the rate up banner. So in 1 month of saved gems, you have a 8.6% chance of pulling your desired character. If you only do dailies and logins, I don't think you even save enough for a single 10 pull lol. In FGO, you can farm roughly 24 saint quartz and 4 pull tickets a month. 12 pulls. Chasing a limited servant is at 0.8%, so from 1 month of saving, you have at cumulative chance of 9.1% For epic seven, I just took the numbers from this post: https://www.reddit.com/r/EpicSeven/comments/9xl2wv/some_data_on_how_many_free_pulls_monthly_a_f2p/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share From this, you can get 48 pulls a month (I excluded daily summons since most gachas have this, and you cannot target a specific character) so a cumulative probability is around 32% chance to get the unit you want in a month of saving. HOWEVER, that being said, Epic 7 does have a mercy pull on the 121st time (121 club! ಡ ͜ ʖ ಡ), so you can effectively guarantee your pull from 2.5 months of saving. 2.5 months of dailies in DC is at 98%, so 1 in 50 people will be pissed as hell for DC. Anyways, from my experience E7 is a much heavier time commitment when I played, so I'm not sure how long it takes it get to this point.

Comment 13

  • BSCasino LV.17 Sage Oct 16, 2019, 10:09 AM

    Nice attempt but this is a fallacious argument. If Samsung starts charging $2000 for the s11, APPLE goes $2100, Sony charges $2050 then oneplus charged $1500, then you could stay compared to other companies oneplus is very generous.
    But that wouldn't be true, now would it? The problem would be the industry as a whole has moved to offer less value for money and oneplus is the least offensive. But least offensive is not the same as 'good'.

    I have not seen a single person say compared to other games DC is crap (rates etc) so you are arguing against a point nobody made. The problem is this low odds gambling nonsense that has been normalized over time by exploiting the psychologically vulnerable, as far as low rates are concerned...and more importantly, the real world value proposition is laughable - THAT is the real problem.

    Don't believe me? Try and make an argument in which gambling for a chance to get a gif or sprite or even a 3d model with no resale value to hit a jackpot is better for the consumer than being able to buy what you want outright for a fair price.

    Look OBJECTIVELY at what you are saying. You are saying that THIRTY DAYS of religiously logging on and doing boring, repetitive activities will grant you a less than 80% chance to get one copy of something you want.

    Do you not see how insane that is? Now, what's even more, is some of us say 'keep your shit rates for f2p... I WANT to spend money on the game (you know, the thing they need to survive and none of your free 150 pulls will help with) - just give me good value for my money.'

    To that end... why don't you do the calculations on how much money you have to spend on that below 80% chance to get a unit you want? Then look at other full games you can get with that amount and tell me how that makes sense.

    Let me start you off : 18000 gems cost USD84.

    The rates are bad.
    They are better than most but that does not make them good.
    No fair option to buy what you want means the only way to get units is by interacting with said horrible rates.

    That is the actual argument people are making and why some of us go strict f2p and only stay because we're perverts who like anime tiddies.

  • Migaruke LV.20 Insomniac Oct 16, 2019, 10:38 AM

    Good and bad will always be a relative subject. This is true in all aspects of life and morality. If a company charges $5000 for a phone, but everyone buys it, then that's the norm. There's nothing 'good' or 'bad' about it. If it's too high for the consumer, and they don't buy, then the company will simply have to lower their price or go bankrupt.

    The 18000 gems pricing is designed for whales. A normal player doesn't blow that kind of money when they know they can accrue that many gems in 2 weeks. DC doesn't have a huge benefit margin per dollar for those who pay. There's little point in calculating this for most players that are f2p. Niche markets depend entirely on whales to stay afloat, and this game definitely falls in that category. Charging "reasonable" prices will hurt them more since the majority of players still won't spend a cent.

    If you want to jump into the whole psychological aspect... yes gacha games hit the same exact aspects of the human psyche as gambling. It's addiction. Why do people gamble knowing the house has the advantage? Because it's addicting to win. Why did gacha games get so popular? Because it's addicting to win your character with that uncertainty looming in the background. In the end it's about what we are willing to pay for that addictive high. There isin't a 'value' or 'resale value' assigned to that, and that's up to the consumer entirely.

  • Bikini Lisa LV.19 Boo! Oct 16, 2019, 12:53 PM

    This guy gets it. Most people lack the common sense you have.

  • LycaDelish LV.22 RIP Oct 16, 2019, 08:30 PM

    I agree with you, but this is a problem with gacha in general, not DC itself.

  • Archfiend Laharl LV.23 Warrior Oct 17, 2019, 02:47 AM

    It's interesting how choosing to play f2p actually becomes something punitive against the Devs. We play f2p style not because we aren't willing to pay, but because the prices are too high.

    I really wish there were more financial information available to determine whether a lower price point model would really be untenable. I know I would spend money on the game if the prices seemed reasonable to me -- I've done so in other, similar games. A lot of the negative feeling here comes from the perception of greed on the part of the Devs. I understand they need to make money, and I'm willing to assist, but I don't want to feel I'm being taken advantage of.

  • BadMelody LV.21 Professional Noob Oct 16, 2019, 07:26 AM

    It always baffles me when people complain about the pull rates in DC. Like, have you played literally any other gacha game? The pull rates are basically gutter trash in pretty much everything else when compared to DC, not to mention the amount of currency you can collect is just silly.

  • Otakuman706 LV.20 Insomniac Oct 16, 2019, 11:41 AM

    I generally agree, DC has been pretty f2p friendly, especially compared to most other gachas. Having said that I think the prices (irl money prices I mean) are still a bit much, though recently, now that they've offering guaranteed childs instead of just chances, slightly better. Though imo they still are higher than I think they should be. I know I would have spent more (f2p with one small purchase atm) if the prices were 'better.' Or even maybe expanded options- stuff more middle ground, for those who can't whale on the current options, but would do more than the lower priced stuff currently available. This may not be the 'best' option, but it may be an improvement for some.
    Having said that I've definitely seen other gachas with worse prices, along with worse rates on pulls, etc.

    Other than this, I don't think the OPs data is 'enough', but its probably about the best we'll get for many gachas. Other than the idea (true or not) that spending money changes other rates, there is the similar idea that some think after the initial playing period rates change (again not saying its true or not) both of which could complicate things- not to mention other ideas on stuff/bugs/whatever changing things.

    Not that I mean its bad, or not useful, or anything like that, just that I mean its probably not 'solid' enough to really base much on. But, without more behind the scenes data, and due to the nature of rng itself (and the differences between actual rn generation approaches etc.) it makes gathering 'useful' data a pita- both time consuming, and costly at least.
    Part of my thoughts may be more 'overblown' than needed due to (possibly 'unfair') comparisons to scientific data collection/applications/etc.- which often has plenty of issues of it's own anyway.

    Anyway, again not saying this isn't useful, and I applaud any approach like this- it can be helpful in providing useful info/perspectives/etc. I just think this should be like one data set among many more if we wanted truly 'useful'/'accurate' results. Either way, good work, and I hope we see more data (internal info would be great, though understandably unlikely) like this as time goes on- not just for DC, but other gachas too.

    Ok tried to limit my text wall somewhat so I'm going to leave it there lol.

  • Migaruke LV.20 Insomniac Oct 16, 2019, 12:32 PM

    I agree; My data relies on trust that dev's posted posted rates are true. Though I don't see why they would lie, since lying about rates would be an easy lawsuit waiting to happen. It would be better for them if they didn't post it at all if they were planning to lie about it. (note* in Japan gacha rates are required to be public by law).

    The 'best' data would actually be the cumulative statistics of the pulls and gem accrual rate from the players. However, there's no clean way to get this. Depending on people from forums to provide their results always gives an incorrect distribution, since we are not evenly sampling from the true distribution. Confirmation bias everywhere!

    This post was really just to provide another perspective. Most people see the rate only but don't consider the amount of premium currency accrual in the process.

  • BadMelody LV.21 Professional Noob Oct 16, 2019, 04:10 PM

    If it helps, I spent roughly 240k crystals on the newbie mona banner, which amounts to about 89 10× pulls and got 34 5* units. That means I got a 5* about 3.8% of the time.

  • Migaruke LV.20 Insomniac Oct 16, 2019, 06:11 PM

    thanks for that! very useful information!

  • Shuten LV.20 Dragon Oct 16, 2019, 09:05 AM

    They dont know other game, only came here for boob :v

    Btw about daily, if you put more little effort and do 25 *2 expedition everyday(12+6+1 =19 Hours), thats a extra 500 crystal (20 each 2*). Basically a extra 15k for 30 day.

  • Archfiend Laharl LV.23 Warrior Oct 17, 2019, 02:44 AM

    I Love the statistical analysis approach you bring. Regardless of what people feel on this issue, I don't think it's ever bad to have access to data like this when forming our opinions. I really appreciate your willingness to put in the effort to put this together. Thank you!

  • Migaruke LV.20 Insomniac Oct 17, 2019, 07:57 AM

    Thanks Laharl! (ノ◕ヮ◕)ノ*.✧