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LV.17Sage

The Economy of Loot Crates

With yesterday's release of the two new loot crates (Fever and Militia), I wanted to take a look at how they fared in the Marketplace. For those of you that don't know, all of PUBG's reward crates along with all of the cosmetics you can get from them are able to be bought and sold for "real money" on the Steam Marketplace. I don't know if there's an Xbox equivalent, but I would imagine there is.
 
Let's look at the data:
 
1) Fever Crate
- Opened on the market at ~$1.30
- Peaked 3 hours after open at ~$1.70
- Crashed hard. Just 12 hours after the peak the value was halved to ~$0.85
- Currently (~24hrs after open) back on a slight rise, looking to stabilize around $1.10
 
2) Militia Crate
- Opened on the market at ~$2.15
- Peaked 2 hours after open at ~$4.00
- Did not crash hard. Graph suggests a cup-and-handle pattern which means the value is likely to approach $4.00 again before crashing
- Currently valued at ~$3.50
 
Analysis
 
-The Fever crates can only be opened using a key that costs $2.50. If we consider the relative cost of opening each crate type, the values after the open are pretty similar. For example, the cost of opening a Fever crate at its peak was $4.20; Militia was $4.00.
 
- The value of Militia crates showed much less volatility. This is to be expected for two reasons. First, the Militia crates do not require a purchase-only key to open. Second, receiving a Militia crate is the result of RNG (Mystery crate), which limits the potential market supply in comparison to Fever crates.
 
- Sell early. If you want to get the most value for your crates, you have a short window of opportunity in the couple hours after they are first released on the Steam Marketplace.
 
Hopefully this sheds some light on the economy of PUBG's crates and gives you an edge the next time new crates are released. Let me know what you guys think.

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